Pressing Issues

How has Ousmane Dembele, a winger who throughout his career has either been injured or been criticized for lacking end product, scored 10 goals in his last 4 games?

I watched and analysed every shot the 27-year-old has had for PSG to find out what’s behind his transformation.

Starting Slow

Dembele’s £43 million arrival from Barcelona in Augusr 2023 was met with mixed reception from PSG fans, and he made his debut from the bench against Toulouse within a week of signing.

His first shot for the club came in this game. As seen above, Dembele picks the ball up on the right and drifts inwards, getting himself into a good shooting position.

He makes a poor connection with the shot, which gets blocked.

His second shot was frustrating for another reason. Again, Dembele had picked up the ball on the right, and had space to run into. But this time, he chooses to stay wide rather than cutting in. For someone as two-footed as Dembele (he has had exactly 50 shots on each foot since joining PSG), this isn’t an issue.

However, Dembele takes the shot on earlier than necessary, and his effort ends up off target.

Against Lyon the week after, he would have 4 shots, and each of them would raise concerns over Dembele’s finishing further. His poor decision making had repeatedly left him taking low-quality shots, and he missed his first ‘big chance’ for PSG with a header.

This pattern of low percentage shots and poor decision making would continue into November 2023. Against Milan in the Champions League he would have 5 shots, all valued at fewer than 0.10 expected goals (xG).

Turning Point?

By mid November, Dembele had played 15 games for PSG without scoring. His first competitive goal since January 2023 came when scored the 10th in France’s 14-0 win over Gibraltar with a well-taken finish.

This clearly served Dembele’s confidence as he proceeded to score his first PSG goal the following week. He rifled an effort home from a tight angle, with a finish that suggested he had something to prove.

This wouldn’t end up being the case though, as this would be his only goal until April 2024. Manager Luis Enrique started to use Dembele as a more creative outlet, playing him through the middle more frequently. As a result, he only had 10 shots in 11 games between 14/01/24 and 13/03/24. Before this point, he had managed 46 shots across 20 games for PSG.

Dembele was shooting less and found confidence in a more creative role. His decision-making, although still frustrating at times, was improving. He was shooting from poor positions less, preferring to find another option.

Return to Barca

By April, Dembele had mostly played the number ten role for a few months. Yet Luis Enrique chose to start him on the right flank against Barcelona for a Champions League knockout match.

He would go on to score his second and third PSG goals across the two legs against Barcelona, the first being a brilliant finish past a sea of Barca defenders, and the second being a much higher percentage chance at the back post.

These goals would however, prove to be Dembele’s last of the season. He was still frustrating with his decision-making at times and highly prone to shooting from poor positions, but he had undoubtedly made progress.

So What’s Changed?

This season, Dembele has transformed into one of the most productive forwards in Europe. And there are two big reasons why.

Shown above is Dembele’s ‘shotmap’ for the 2023/24 season (first image) and this season (second image). What immediately becomes clear is that even though Dembele has played fewer games this season, he has had far more opportunities from central areas, mostly closer to goal.

It should go without saying, but taking more shots from more threatening areas, and less from unlikely areas, would lead to any forward scoring more frequently. Dembele has clearly worked with PSG to create more of these high-probability shots, and he is reaping the rewards.

Shown above are a series of chances Dembele has had this season – high xG opportunities that his movement and decision-making had previously prevented him having.

He is averaging 0.19 xG per shot this season, up from 0.12 during 23/24. While that might not sound like much, it means that he is 40% more likely to score from each shot he takes.

The other major reason is more straightforward – confidence. The fact that Dembele has scored 23 goals in 21 starts this season will have given him the belief that he is capable of competing with the world’s best. For a player to have spent so much of his career sidelined by injury, it has unsurprisingly taken a sustained run of games for him to build this confidence up.

But now he’s there, there is no reason why Dembele can’t lead PSG’s attack for the next few seasons.