Pressing Issues

Arsenal’s recent Carabao Cup defeat to Newcastle is the first home game the Gunners have all season, yet Mikel Arteta’s side have come under massive criticism and scrutiny, despite being undefeated in 13 games prior to Tuesday’s 2-0 loss.

It was their first loss since a 1-0 Champions League defeat to Inter in the first week of November, but disappointing draws against Fulham, Everton and Brighton have prevented Arsenal mounting any genuine pressure on Premier League leaders Liverpool.

And yet, casting our minds back to January 2024, Arsenal were sat in an almost identical position. 40 points after 20 games after a few disappointing December results had left them slightly adrift in the title race.

Arsenal would go onto win 16 of their last 18 league games and miss out on the title by just two points. But this time around, it feels almost unthinkable that they could find that same form again – but why?

Big Chances Going Begging

Over the course of the last few weeks, Arsenal have had a myriad of high xG big chances fail to find the back of the net. In some cases these chances have been pivotal to the outcome of a match – Kai Havertz glaring miss against Newcastle or Mikel Merino’s headed chance against Brighton would’ve completely changed the game-state of these fixtures.

Yet these efforts falling just the wrong side of the post have led to dropped points against Everton and Brighton in recent weeks, and

Both Jurrien Timber and Kai Havertz had huge opportunities against Newcastle and missed, Mikel Merino had a strong chance to double Arsenal’s lead on Saturday against Brighton and failed to hit the target.

In short, Arsenal have had many opportunities in recent weeks to either put games out of opposition’s reach, or to take the lead in games they have gone on to lose or draw.

Over the course of the season, failing to capitalise when these opportunities are presented to you will inevitably hinder a team’s chances in a title race – which over the past few years has so often been decided by 5 points or fewer.

A Statistical View

During the 2023/24 campaign, Arsenal averaged 1.27 xG more than their opponents per game. This figure for this Premier League season sits at 0.8. This essentially means that each of their games are half a goal closer on average than they were last season.

They are also averaging just 13.70 shots per 90 minutes, falling from 17 last campaign. 3.3 fewer shots per game accumulates to 125 fewer over the course of a season – which is significant.

As a result, they are having 4.85 shots on target per 90 minutes – which ranks 6th in the Premier League. They also rank 6th for their percentage of shots on target at 35.4% (Liverpool sit second on 39.9%).

Arsenal’s attacking stats are worse on almost every metric this season than they were last season. This isn’t surprising given Martin Odegaard missed a long series of games, and that Bukayo Saka is now out with injury. The team’s two attacking talisman are so vital to Arsenal’s attack, that the thought of facing Tottenham, Aston Villa and Manchester City without Saka in their next 4 Premier League games is a bleak one.

So, Can Arsenal Still Do It?

Despite sitting 6 points behind Liverpool having played a game more, there is hope for Arsenal yet.

During the early parts of the season, Arsenal successfully negotiated many of the hardest away fixtures the Premier League provides: their 2-2 draw away at Manchester City, a 2-0 win at Villa Park, 1-0 at Tottenham, 1-1 at Stamford Bridge the highlights of these.

This means that for the second round of fixtures, Arsenal’s tricky away games consist of a visit to high-flying Nottingham Forest, a trip to Old Trafford and a visit to Anfield which could be a mouth-watering title decider in May.

While every Premier League fixture is a test, Arsenal will back themselves to beat almost anybody at home, and many of their away games are against sides in the bottom 5.

In contrast, Liverpool visit Nottingham Forest, Brentford, Bournemouth, Manchester City, Everton, Fulham and Brighton in their remaining games.

The Reds of course, remain favourites for the title as Arne Slot’s side show no signs of faltering (despite a slightly wobbly showing against Manchester United at the weekend), but it is inarguable that Arsenal have more favourable fixtures for the remainder of the season.

As a result, it won’t be a surprise if Arsenal start to reel Liverpool in throughout February and March.