Pressing Issues

Despite the insistence from Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca that Chelsea aren’t in a title race and that LIverpool, Arsenal and the floundering Manchester City are the clubs actually in contention, the Blues sit two points off the Premier League summit.

Maresca will take charge at Goodison Park on Sunday afternoon knowing that a win over Everton would see Chelsea go top of the league – at least until Liverpool play Tottenham later that afternoon.

Should they win at Everton and Liverpool drop points during their trip to North London, Chelsea will be top of the Premier League at Christmas.

It’s a feat Chelsea have only managed once in their last seven league visits, a task made more difficult after Marc Cucurella managed to score and get sent off in their game against Brentford (shown above). But having just become the first team this season to win 5 successive Premier League games, there is no one in better form than the London outfit.

In 11 of the past 16 seasons, the club top of the Premier League at Christmas has gone onto win the league – although it’s only happened 3 times in the past 6.

It has been an incredible turnaround in west London, with Chelsea being discussed as potential top four contenders, and now looking to push Liverpool all the way.

Maresca’s Magic

So much of the success that Chelsea have enjoyed this season can be attributed to their new manager. The Italian appears to have benefited every facet of the club: he interviews with assurance and clarity, has made his intentions of developing young players very clear, created a real optimism both at the club and amongst fans, and most importantly demonstrated that his on-field approach can succeed.

To join a club in the summer, and by the close of the year have completely transformed the culture, instilled a belief among everyone, and to be sat second in the Premier League having scored the most goals of any team, is an absolutely incredible achievement for Maresca.

Cultural Shift

Chelsea’s culture for decades has been that they appoint successful managers of the moment in pursuit of immediate success, remove that manager when it starts going wrong, and hire the man who is most likely to bring immediate success again – they have had 20 full-time managers (excluding Frank Lampard’s second stint in charge and Bruno Saltor who took up short-term roles) since Roman Abramovich bought the club in 2003.

During the same time period, Arsenal have had 3 full-time managers, Liverpool have had 7, and Manchester City have had 8.

Yet Maresca’s introduction appears to have a very different feel to it. He signed a five-year contract, and has spoken at length about not rushing towards success – preferring to focus on making positive progress.

This has been a welcome change for Chelsea fans who for years have been calling out for a manager with a clear pattern of play, footballing philosophy and with the right vision to take the Blues forward.

Clear Approach

Maresca’s 4-2-3-1 which plays more like a 3-2-2-3 in possession – or a ‘3 box 3’ as The Athletic’s John Mackenzie has dubbed it, faced criticism for its lack of speed in build up and ‘boring’, possession-focused style when the Italian won the Championship with Leicester last season.

But the evolution of these tactics should be commended. They are not particularly complicated – entirely designed with the focus of creating passing lanes to progress the ball through the lines.

The left image shows Chelsea’s in possession approach for when a double pivot (Romeo Lavia/Moises Caicedo) is preferred. Caicedo inverts from right-back to provide the fourth in the midfield ‘box’. This has been seen in most of Chelsea’s ‘big games’ this season.

The other image shows Maresca’s preferred shape when he feels a double pivot isn’t necessary. Marc Cucurella pushes up into the ‘number 8’ role from left-back, and Enzo Fernandez drops into the deeper part of the ‘box’. This has been utilised when Chelsea are chasing a game, such as the second half of their 4-3 win over Tottenham.

What this shows is that while Maresca’s Chelsea system is very simple at this moment in time, he is able to adapt it from game-to-game or even in-game as he sees fit.

The result has been that the players understand what is being asked of them, and that Maresca still feels he has the control to resolve issues if he sees them.

So Can They Do It?

The ingredients are all there: a positive culture, great squad depth, plenty of attacking talent, tactical nous – but one glaring issue remains for if Chelsea are going to push on and win the title.

Chelsea rank 11th in the Premier League for expected goals conceded (xGC) this season. Traditionally, it has been proven very difficult for sides who consistently concede big chances to win the league.

It reflects Sir Alex Ferguson’s famous “attack wins you games, defence wins you titles.”

The other statistic Chelsea fans would rather not read is that they are currently on track to finish on 78 points (at an average of 2.07 per game) – a total that would only have won the Premier League twice in its 32 year history.

However, this season does feel different. The 90-point benchmark of recent years seems unlikely to be reached, and as a result Chelsea find themselves very much in a title race. They could benefit from not playing in the Champions League, and there is a very strong possibility they push Liverpool (and maybe Manchester City and Arsenal) all the way.