Pressing Issues

• Erling Haaland has become the ‘least clinical’ striker in the league since the end of September.
• How Guardiola’s efforts to replace Rodri have been a disaster – and why this is so impactful.
• Why Manchester City’s injuries are affecting them more than usual.

Haaland Wasteful as City Rue Missed Opportunities

He’s scored 5 goals in his last 10 club appearances – a stat which most clubs would be content with from their striker, but during the same time frame (since 28th September), Erling Haaland is the most under-performing player in the Premier League according to expected goals (xG) data.

The Norwegian giant has accumulated 9.07 xG over his last 10 games (essentially meaning that the ‘average player’ should score 9 goals given the same chances). There is a general rhetoric that top players consistently out perform their xG – Son Heung-Min has become notorious for this – so Haaland’s wastefulness should be of concern to City.

With injuries to other key players, and the sale of Julian Alvarez leaving Haaland as City’s only striker, Guardiola would have been hoping that the two-time golden boot winner was going to continue his red hot form of the beginning of the season – but after scoring 9 goals in the opening 4 league games, a dip was fairly inevitable.

Another problem for City is that Haaland won the golden boot last season while slightly performing below his xG. This is indicative that he is not getting the same volume of chances as last season, an issue which is not Haaland’s fault.

Why Kovacic Will Never Be Able to Cover Rodri

Funnily enough, losing the Balon D’Or winner has had an enormous impact on Manchester City.

Rodri’s ability to prevent passes between the lines, to snuff out counter attacks before they have even started, as well as his size and control he offers in midfield have all been sorely missed in the heart of the team. And, unfortunately for City fans, they’re going to have to get used to it.

Due to Rodri’s importance to Guardiola, there is no like-for-like replacement for him within his squad. Not just in terms of quality, but also player profile. Mateo Kovacic possesses the closest profile and has been chosen for the role, but lacks the defensive instinct and presence that has become so synonymous with the Citizens.

As shown above, Rodri’s presence simply cannot be covered by one person. Guardiola has tried mitigating this by involving Rico Lewis more centrally, but this has led to City being frequently exposed on the counterattack. They have currently conceded the most shots from fast breaks out of anyone in the league (26), due to the absence of Rodri and his ability to prevent counterattacks.

Moving forward, City might look at the January transfer window for a stopgap type transfer which could somewhat resolve the issue. Alternatively, John Stones could be utilised to play a more advanced role. Guardiola has previously used him as a ball-winning defender who steps into midfield, and an adaptation of this could suit the experienced Englishman.

Why City’s Injuries Are Really Hurting

Historically, Pep Guardiola has had a tendency to overplay the struggles of his team. With their relentless squad depth, he normally gets very little sympathy.

However, Manchester City had 8 players either ruled out or not fit enough to start at the Amex. 4 of these – John Stones, Ruben Dias, Manuel Akanji and Nathan Ake – are centre backs.

So many injuries in one position mean that Guardiola was forced to give 19-year-old Jahmal Simpson-Pusey his first league start. With this, there is a significant drop off in quality (not that blame should be attributed to the youngster) between the defence of yesterday and what would be considered City’s first choice.

With these adjustments, a disconnect between City’s defenders, and the defence’s relationship with the midfield, has become evident. Brighton found it strangely easy to pass between the lines en route to victory. A large part of the problem appears to be that with the number of moving parts within a Pep Guardiola setup, constant chopping and changing at the team’s backbone is having untold impacts on the entire system. Communication, anticipation and recovery have all become problem points.

A large part of the reason behind this will be Manchester City’s injuries – and it is imperative that their defenders, as well as forwards Jeremy Doku and Jack Grealish, return to fitness as soon as possible.