Pressing Issues

He’s widely regarded as the greatest manager of the last 15 years, and has won 73% of the games he has ever managed. Since taking charge at Barcelona in 2008, Pep Guardiola has never waivered, never faltered without immediate response.

The Spaniard has always worn his heart on his sleeve: emotional team talks, eccentric body language on the touchline and in interviews – and it has almost always yielded results.

But is Guardiola’s intense, relentless, obsessive nature finally taking its toll on his team’s performances, or even on Guardiola himself? He emerged for his post-match press conference yesterday covered in scratches due to Manchester City’s latest capitulation.

People have also started calling for the six-time Premier League winner need to change his tactics – a bizarre request considering his exceptional footballing mind or a valid question given recent results?

Stuttering City Causing Pep Madness

70 minutes in last night, the Etihad Stadium (or the City of Manchester Stadium if UEFA are reading) was filled with relief – after 5 losses on the bounce, City were 3-0 up and had conceded just 0.18 expected goals (xG) throughout the game.

They then proceeded to offer Feyenoord 3 big chances in the last 20 minutes, and Guardiola was left scratching his head in confusion when it was 3-3 at full-time.

Interestingly though, only yesterday’s draw and City’s Carabao Cup defeat to Tottenham Hotspur saw the Blues produce more xG than their opponents – which is very different to previous City blips.

Due to their high-press, high frequency of shots and usual security against counterattacks, it is very rare that a Guardiola team lose a match on xG – which is why Pep’s league track-record is so exceptional: if you are winning almost every game on xG, over the course of a season you are likely to win the title.

The topic of what’s caused the City meltdown has been widely discussed, but there has been less discussion over the wellbeing of Pep himself. A self-proclaimed football obsessive, the very thought that Guardiola’s whole philosophy was entirely reliant on the now injured Rodri will be a horrifying idea for the 53-year-old to process.

Would Pep Change?

“We played on artificial pitches in the fourth division and they were so small. I said, ‘we have to change, the pitches are so small’. But then I arrived to Wednesday training and said ‘no, I’m not going to change’”. Guardiola’s footballing philosophy is continuously evolving and developing – but as he said 3 games into the 2007/08 season at Barcelona B, “I’m not going to change”.

17 years later, and most people would agree that he has stuck to his principles. His tactics have evolved from the creation of the false 9 to inverted full backs, but the concept of football itself hasn’t particularly changed.

His intention remains clear: maintain possession high up the pitch, prevent counterattacks, and allow creative players to thrive in tight spaces.

Sky Sports’ Jamie Carragher called the City boss “unsackable” earlier this week, and made the astute point that “who’s better than Pep Guardiola?”.

While it’s amusing to theorise ‘how many games would City have to lose in a row for Guardiola to get sacked?” – a timeless segment of the James and Flav For Now podcast covering various managers over various years, it is impossible to picture a world where City sack the world’s best coach. The better question to ask then, is ‘what would it take for Guardiola to change?’

And the answer is probably nothing at all. For over a decade he has proven his worth, proven his philosophy, and any failure now should be attributed to the tools at his disposal. It is far more likely, that they ride out the blip (or ‘mini-crisis’ to some) and recruit a top central midfielder to play Rodri until his return.

It should be considered that City remain 2nd in the Premier League, and while Liverpool are rightly favourites for their fixture against the champions on Sunday, the gap will be 5 points if City were to go to Anfield and win.